Daily Market Rundown — FRIDAY, OCTOBER 30, 2026

SENTIMENT

BEARISH -38

CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM

Tech earnings rout deepens; 10Y at 5.05% and AI spending fears dominate.

MACRO

-45 BEARISH

10Y yield +6bps to 5.05% (restrictive territory)
WTI crude -$1.88 to $103.37 but elevated on Iran strike risk
Broad USD index 121.32 (-0.03) — dollar strength persists
STL Financial Stress -0.5837 (+0.05 vs prior, trending less accommodative)

EQUITIES

-45 BEARISH

VIX 18.4 — Normal zone but Fear & Greed at 35 (Fear)
Gapper distribution skews heavily negative: 8 down vs 2 up at high RVOL
GOOGL -11.7%, MRVL -11.4%, CAT -10.8% — broad-based tech and industrial selling
AMZN and INTC earnings disappointments extend AI-spend skepticism

CREDIT

+15 BULLISH

HY OAS -4bps to 3.14% (credit spreads tightening, risk-on signal)
IG OAS -2bps to 0.86% (investment-grade spreads compressing)
2s10s spread +0.37pp — curve positively sloped, no inversion stress

WATCHING: 10Y yieldHY OASWTI crudeVIXAI capex narrative

MACRO OVERVIEW

Dive Deeper

S&P 500 futures flat at 7,720 as tech-sector earnings rout offsets stable credit spreads heading into Friday's open.
Overnight: Nikkei -2.12% and Shanghai -1.44% led Asia lower as AMZN and INTC post-earnings selloffs rippled through global tech; Hang Seng +1.46% was the lone outlier.
No material earnings reporters this session with canonical BENZINGA data; prior-session beats from Exxon and Chevron on refining profits are the closest positive read-through.
No guidance revisions issued this session.
No high-importance analyst actions this session.
Tech rout is the dominant unresolved catalyst — GOOGL, MRVL, CAT, and AMZN all gapping down with high RVOL; AI-capex ROI debate is the session's central risk.
No tier-1 data today; focus shifts to technicals and end-of-month positioning flows.
Kalshi recession-start contract collapsed to 3%, -6 pts vs prior — prediction markets sharply reducing near-term recession odds despite equity weakness.
Energy outperforming on Iran-strike risk lifting WTI; tech lagging as AI-spend skepticism following AMZN and INTC results pressures the sector.
10Y rising to 5.05%; Broad USD index 121.32 — elevated yield and firm dollar create a headwind for growth equities and rate-sensitive sectors.
SPX 7,720 is the level to watch at the open — a break below with volume would confirm the tech-led selloff is broadening beyond sector rotation.

RISK-OFFTECHEARNINGS SEASON

FEAR & GREED

—

High reading = Caution

VIX — VOLATILITY

—

High = Panic / Stress

PUT / CALL RATIO

—

High = High Pessimism

BUFFETT INDICATOR

—

High = Market Overvalued

GLOBAL INDICES

loading…

See trending tickers in the community →

MARKET THEMES

▸ AI capex ROI skepticism spreading as AMZN and INTC results raise questions about hyperscaler spending returns.

▸ Semiconductors under broad pressure as MRVL and INTC misses signal demand softness beyond single-name risk.

▸ Energy outperforming peers as Iran-strike risk lifts WTI crude above $103, boosting XOM and CVX.

▸ Cybersecurity names (PANW, CRWD, ZS, NET) selling off in sympathy with tech rout despite no sector-specific catalyst.

▸ UK gilts rallying sharply — yields sliding most since May on cautious Burnham budget, diverging from US 10Y at 5.05%.

▸ Copper declining as tech selloff and elevated oil prices fuel global growth concerns, pressuring industrial metals.

▸ US midterm election risk looming Tuesday — AI policy fears gripping bond and equity traders ahead of potential gridlock.

STOCKS IN PLAY

GOOGL -11.70%

—

Post-earnings selloff; results disappointed on key metrics; RVOL 2.2x confirms institutional distribution

Discuss →

MRVL -11.38%

—

Earnings-driven selloff; weak outlook pressuring semiconductor names; RVOL 2.6x

Discuss →

CAT -10.80%

—

Earnings miss or guidance cut driving industrial selloff; RVOL 2.4x signals institutional selling

Discuss →

AMZN -4.94%

—

Q3 earnings: heavy AI infrastructure capex, negative free cash flow, and modest AWS growth disappointed; stock dropping despite bold cloud revenue target from CEO Jassy

Discuss →

INTC -11.70%

—

Quarterly outlook below expectations on weak PC demand and manufacturing constraints; worst single-day decline in two years; ~$128B market cap wipeout flagged

Discuss →

LLY +3.45%

—

Pre-market gapper up +3.45% with RVOL 2.1x; earnings or pipeline catalyst driving outperformance vs broad market selloff

Discuss →

PANW -6.50%

—

Cybersecurity sector contagion from broader tech rout; RVOL 1.6x on no company-specific catalyst — sector de-risking

Discuss →

PRE-MARKET GAPPERS — ±3%+

loading…

Loading scanner…

EARNINGS REPORTS

Loading…

PREDICTION MARKETS — KALSHI ODDS

Loading…

ECONOMIC CALENDAR — NEXT 7 DAYS

Loading…

WEEK AHEAD

Tue Nov 3 — US Midterm Elections; AI policy and Congressional gridlock risk in focus

Ongoing — Tech earnings fallout and AI-capex ROI debate likely to dominate positioning into next week

Watch — Fed speakers post-midterms for rate path signals with 10Y at 5.05%